Vol. 8 (1): May 2005

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The numbers game (III)

Note: the following updates The numbers game (II), TMG 6 (2): December 2003.

Thousands of islands, inaccessible coastlines, and a species that shies away from human contact have all conspired to make distribution and abundance assessments for the Mediterranean monk seal (Monachus monachus) an extraordinarily inexact science. Conventional wisdom, however, suggests that only 400-500 individuals survive, making the Mediterranean monk seal Europe’s most endangered marine mammal.

The Mediterranean monk seal is “Critically Endangered (CR)” according to the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species (IUCN 2000, UNEP-WCM). A species is so listed, according to IUCN, “when it is facing an extremely high risk of extinction in the wild in the immediate future,” as defined by specific criteria (For further information, see: www.redlist.org/info/categories_criteria1994.html#categories).

Historically, Monachus monachus occupied a wide geographical range. Colonies were found throughout the Mediterranean, Marmara and Black seas. The species also frequented the Atlantic coast of Africa, as far south as Mauritania, Senegal and the Gambia, as well as the Atlantic islands of Cape Verde, Madeira, the Canary Islands and the Azores (Johnson & Lavigne 1999, Johnson 2004).

More recently, however, the species has disappeared from most of its former range, with the most severe contraction and fragmentation occurring during the 20th century. Nations and island groups where the monk seal has been extirpated during the past century include France and Corsica, Spain and the Balearic Islands, Italy, Sardinia, Sicily and the Tuscan archipelago, as well as Egypt, Israel and Lebanon (UNEP/MAP 1994, Aguilar 1998). More recently, the species is also thought to have become effectively extinct in the Black Sea, the Sea of Marmara (Kirac 2001), and the Adriatic coasts and islands of Croatia (Johnson & Lavigne 1999a, Lavigne & Johnson 2001).

Uncertainty also hangs over the survival of the monk seal in Tunisia, where the species has faced onslaughts in its last retreats by tourists and sports divers (Ouerghi et al. 2001).

Despite sporadic sightings, the species appears to be effectively extinct in Sardinia (Johnson 1998, Johnson & Lavigne 1999a, 1999b).

Illustrating the inherent uncertainty of monk seal population estimates, a monk seal birth was reported in December 2004 in Sicily – possibly the first recorded birth on the island in 30 years [see “Incredible news” from Favignana, this issue]. It is unclear whether some monk seals continued to inhabit Sicily during the intervening years unbeknownst to researchers, or whether they recolonised the island from elsewhere.

Eradicated from most of its former range, the Mediterranean monk seal is now mainly confined to two surviving populations, one occupying the Atlantic coast of northwest Africa, and the other, the northeastern Mediterranean.

Partly because of their own tendency to err on the side of caution, historically, biologists have consistently underestimated the numbers of monk seals populating the Mediterranean — offering some explanation as to why estimates have remained numerically stable over the last 20 years despite severe and undiminished threats (Cf. Ronald & Duguy 1979 and Aguilar 1998).

Conversely, errors have also been known to creep into population estimates when biologists rely on old data. This has often resulted in monk seal colonies being placed in areas where they have been extinct for many years.

Predictably, absence of accurate population data has hampered the implementation of effective conservation actions (Forcada et al. 1999). Although sometimes subject to changing political climates, political instability and military sensitivity has also prevented research along some extensive reaches of the Mediterranean basin, particularly Algeria and Libya.

With question marks hanging over monk seal abundance in many regions and countries, the figures presented in the table below should be treated with caution.

Acknowledgements: Pablo Fernández de Larrinoa, CBD-Habitat, Madrid, Spain; Harun Güçlüsoy, SAD-AFAG, Foça, Turkey, Alexandros Karamanlidis, MOm, Greece.

Additional notes:

* As a result of more intensive research, Turkey is expected to increase its population estimates for the species in the months ahead: for the time being, the estimate remains at 50.

** Italy and Sardinia remain at “0” despite recent sightings, because researchers have yet to identify occupied habitat.

*** Following the mass mortality that struck the world’s largest surviving monk seal colony in the western Sahara in 1997, 103 individuals were estimated to survive (mean estimate. 95% CI: 77 – 148, Forcada, Hammond & Aguilar 1999), down from 300. These estimates are generally considered more reliable than those obtained elsewhere since they relied upon clearly-defined photo-identification procedures, often impractical elsewhere. New estimates of 150 individuals are based on interpretations of evidence by researchers – counts of seals at low tide in breeding caves, increasing beach counts, decreasing mortalities – but have not been confirmed by capture-recapture methods (that compare data from different sample frames).

Sources and further reading

Aguilar, A. 1998. Current status of Mediterranean monk seal (Monachus monachus) populations. Meeting of experts on the implementation of the action plans for marine mammals (monk seal and cetaceans) adopted within MAP. Arta, Greece, 29-31 October 1998. UNEP, Athens: 1-34.

Forcada, J., P.S. Hammond and A. Aguilar. 1999. Status of the Mediterranean monk seal Monachus monachus in the western Sahara and the implications of a mass mortality event. Marine Ecology Progress Series 188: 249-261.

González, L.M. 1999. Update on the situation of the Mediterranean monk seal (English translation). In: Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals. Scientific Council of the Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals. 9th Meeting, Cape Town, 4-6 November 1999: 1-16 + 6 maps.

González, L.M. 2004. Mediterranean monk seal (Monachus monachus). Up-date of the status and conservation progress. Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals. Twelfth Meeting of the CMS Scientific Council Glasgow, Scotland, United Kingdom, 31 March - 3 April 2004: 1-7. [PDF 153KB]

IUCN. 2000. Monachus monachus. IUCN RedList of Threatened Species. www.redlist.org

Johnson, W.M. 1998a. Monk Seal Myths in Sardinia. The Monachus Guardian 1 (1) May: 1998.

Johnson, W.M. and D.M. Lavigne (a). 1999. Monk seals in antiquity. The Mediterranean monk seal (Monachus monachus) in ancient history and literature. Mededelingen 35: 1-101. The Netherlands Commission for International Nature Protection, Leiden: 1- 128, 17 figs. [Abstract]

Johnson, W.M. and D.M. Lavigne (b). 1999. Mass tourism and the Mediterranean monk seal. The role of mass tourism in the decline and possible future extinction of Europe's most endangered marine mammal, Monachus monachus, The Monachus Guardian 2 (2): 1999. [PDF 465KB]

Johnson, W.M. 2004. Monk seals in post-classical history. The role of the Mediterranean monk seal (Monachus monachus) in European history and culture, from the fall of Rome to the 20th century. Mededelingen 39. Netherlands Commission for International Nature Protection, Leiden: 1-91, 31 figs. [Abstract]

Kirac, C.O. 2001. Witnessing the monk seal’s extinction in the Black Sea, The Monachus Guardian 4 (2): November 2001.

Kiraç, C.O., Y. Savas, H. Güçlüsoy and N.O. Veryeri. 1998. Status and Distribution of Monk Seals Monachus monachus (Hermann 1779) along Turkish Coasts. World Marine Mammal Science Conference, Monaco, 19-24 January 1998, Workshop on the World’s Endangered Monk Seals, SAD-AFAG Poster Presentation. [PDF 51KB]

Lavigne D.M. and W. M. Johnson 2001. Hanging by a thread. The Monachus Guardian 4 (2): November 2001.

Ouerghi, A., G. Mo, F. di Domenico and H. Majhoub. 2001. Assessment of Mediterranean monk seal (Monachus monachus) habitat at La Galite, Tunisia: towards a monk seal conservation strategy in northern Tunisia and nearby waters. RAC/SPA, Tunis; ICRAM, Rome; ANPE, Tunisia: 1-3.

Ronald, K. and R. Duguy (eds.). 1979. The Mediterranean monk seal. First international conference on the Mediterranean monk seal, Rhodes, Greece, 2-5 May, 1978. United Nations Environment Programme / Pergamon Press, Oxford, UK: 1-183.

UNEP/MAP. 1994. Present Status and Trend of the Mediterranean Monk Seal (Monachus monachus) Populations. pp. 44, 15 figs., refs. UNEP/MAP Meeting of Experts on the Evaluation of the Implementation of the Action Plan for the Management of the Mediterranean Monk Seal, Rabat, Morocco, 7-9 October 1994. RAC/SPA (UNEP), Tunis, UNEP(OCA)/MED WG. 87/3. [PDF 413KB]

UNEP-WCMC. 2005 Species of conservation concern database. United Nations Environment Programme-World Conservation Monitoring Centre. www.unep-wcmc.org

IFAW defends seal priorities

Waging its high profile campaign against Canada’s annual harp seal hunt, the International Fund for Animal Welfare (IFAW) has defended its efforts to conserve the Mediterranean monk seal. In a recent article examining its harp-versus-monk seal priorities, published in The Telegram of St. John’s, Newfoundland, IFAW suggests that “strategic” choices must be made on where to focus the organisation’s efforts.

A long-time supporter of the monk seal, IFAW has provided funds to frontline projects in Greece and Madeira, and also to The Monachus Guardian.

In the economic fallout of 9/11, it axed its Mediterranean monk seal programme, quietly withdrawing from the conservation of the species. Facing criticism both from within the organisation and from outside, however, it quickly reconsidered its decision. Some piecemeal funding was restored, at much reduced levels.

Drawing on figures provided by the organisation, the article claims that IFAW “has spent, on average, less than $25,000 US a year over the past decade and a half on efforts to save critically endangered Mediterranean monk seals.”

The Telegram goes on to note, however, that internal documents provided to the paper suggest that the organization is now considering “ramping up its involvement in monk seal conservation.”

Signs of that ramping up may have become apparent in May when the IFAW boat Song of the Whale set off on a monk seal research expedition along the poorly investigated coasts of the Western Sahara [see IFAW boat studies mystery coast, this issue].

Further information

Antle, Rob. 2005. A tale of two species. Mediterranean monk seals may be critically endangered, but they don't get the same spotlight as Canadian harp seals. Special Report, The Telegram (St. John's), Canada, Tuesday, May 3, 2005, p. A1, A4. [PDF 1.4MB].

Mediterranean bottom trawling prohibited below 1000 meters

All areas of the Mediterranean and Black Sea deeper than 1000 m will be permanently off-limits to bottom trawling, according to a decision in late February by the General Fisheries Commission for the Mediterranean (GFCM), the main intergovernmental fishery management body in the region. The binding measure will take effect in late June 2005, although individual GFCM member states may object in the meantime to its applying to them.

The prohibition was influenced by a comprehensive study, conducted in 2004 by WWF and IUCN, on the status of deep-sea ecosystems in the Mediterranean basin. The study recommended as a precautionary measure that fisheries be prevented from extending beyond 1000 m; the measure would protect deep-sea biodiversity, including the nurseries of juvenile deepwater shrimp. That depth represents the current technological limit for most of the Mediterranean deepwater shrimp fleet. Much of the Mediterranean deep sea, with depths to 5000 m, remains unexplored by science or industry. (The IUCN/WWF report, "The Mediterranean Deep-Sea Ecosystems", also called for a representative network of deep-sea MPAs in the region and is available online at www.panda.org/downloads/marine/bookmeddeepsea.pdf 2.2MB)

GFCM has released no official figure on the size of the pending gear closure. However, biologist Sergi Tudela of WWF-Mediterranean estimates it at 55% of the entire basin surface (including the Black Sea), or 1.63 million km2 in total. This would be larger than the 950,000-km2 bottom-trawl closure recommended in February for the Aleutian Islands in Alaska (MPA News 6:8). In comparison, the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park, widely considered the world's largest MPA, is roughly 350,000 km2.

Enforcement of the measure will be the responsibility of the 24 member states of the GFCM, which surround the Mediterranean sea. Part of the closure will be within the 12-nm territorial seas of these states, but most will be on the Mediterranean high seas, outside of national authority. Enforcement of the latter portion will be more complex and challenging, as is the case with high-seas governance (MPA News 5:4). Tudela points out, however, that the areas that would have been most accessible to advances in gear technology are closer to coasts: that is, in territorial seas rather than deeper international waters. "So those waters within 12 nm are important," he says. He adds that regional fisheries ministers are discussing the concept of implementing fisheries protection zones beyond coastal states' 12-nm limits, which could have the effect of helping states enforce the trawl prohibition.

Fishing industry response to the measure has been relatively muted so far, although European industry representatives with interests in other regions have expressed concern that it could spread as a concept to other parts of the world. There have also been statements that the firm 1000-m limit unnecessarily excludes some promising fishing grounds slightly beyond this depth while leaving open some shallower but still fragile areas, including sites with deepwater corals. Francois Simard, marine program coordinator for the IUCN Centre for Mediterranean Cooperation, says a regional network of MPAs could protect unique seabed ecosystems too shallow to be covered by the prohibition. – Bottom trawling prohibited below 1000 meters in Mediterranean courtesy MPA News, www.mpanews.org.

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